Monday, January 24, 2011

My Top 25 Rankings

I usually have at least a gripe or two with the rankings that come out on Monday for the college basketball world, and this week I am sure will be no different. So instead of waiting and watching and being annoyed, here is the way that the rankings should look.

1. Ohio State: They still have not been beat, and they proved they can take the pressure, and go on the road against another top 25 team and win. They have this top spot until they lose.

2. Pittsburgh: They are undefeated in the Big East almost halfway through, and this week they had an impressive win at home against then number three Syracuse. They might be the most balanced team in the nation.

3. San Diego State: They have not lost yet, and deserve some respect for that. They have not played top tier competition but are beating good teams, and everyone put in front of them. We'll see their legitimacy this week against BYU.

4. Kansas: So they lost their first game, and it was at home. That hurts. The thing is it was to a top 10 team that is growing and getting better. They still have all the spots on the court covered with skill and this was not a bad loss.

5. Duke: They only have that one blemish, and Florida State is starting to look like a better loss than originally believed. They will not be tested much in the ACC and you still have to question their strength of schedule(worst in RPI top 10).

6. Connecticut: This team has not lost out of conference, and it beat two teams in the top 10. They are on a roll and growing as a team, while still having the Player of the Year as of now in Kemba Walker.

7. Texas: They are on a roll, and if they had held onto that game against Connecticut they would be a top five team easy. Jordan Hamilton is not getting the national recognition he deserves, and watch out for these freshman, they are going to be better and better.

8. Villanova: They lost a tough game on the road to Connecticut, and then went to the Carrier Dome and shot absolutely lights out in the first half, and held on in the second to win going away. They have two losses and a number of impressive wins. The Coreys are starting to heat up and players roles are being defined.

9. Syracuse: They were undefeated going into the week and lost two games. Drop them out of the top 10 right? Well one loss was at the new number two team without their leading scorer. The second less attractive at home by 11, but that was also to the number seven team in the nation. You can not punish a team too much for losing to two top 10 teams.

10. BYU: They just keep on winning, and Jimmer Fredette just keeps on scoring. They have one of the best backcourts in the nation, and they are better than people will give them credit. Their spot in top 10 will be earned or lost Wednesday against San Diego St.

11. Purdue
12. Notre Dame
13. Missouri
14. Texas A&M
15. Minnesota
16. Wisconsin
17. Kentucky
18. Washington
19. Georgetown
20. Saint Mary's
21. Illinois
22. Michigan State
23. Louisville
24. West Virginia
25. Florida State

Friday, January 21, 2011

Will Top Two Fall?

Ohio State and Kansas both remain undefeated coming into today, they both also have what might be their toughest match ups today. This could be the day where one of them, if not both of them, fall out of the unbeaten world like Syracuse did on Monday.

Ohio St. will travel out of Ohio and find themselves in the great state of Illinois, as they visit the Fighting Illini'. Illinois finds themselves back in the top 25, and are coming off of a win against the Spartans of Michigan St. 71-62. Ohio St. is visiting Illinois after one of their more dominant wins of the season, beating Iowa at home 70-48, where they had five players with nine or more points.

Ohio St. though has won three of four games at Illinois, and swept the regular season series last year between the two. Ohio St. has had its struggles on the road though this year, as can be seen in their first meeting with that same Iowa team where they won in a squeaker 73-68.

I think that the tough road game, easily their toughest of the year, catches up with the Buckeyes and they find themselves with a loss coming into next week's rankings, and out of the top spot. Prediction: Illinois 74 Ohio St 70.

Kansas has an advantage over Ohio St. in that they have a home game today, though they do have the tougher of the two teams to face. The Texas Longhorns come into the Phog ranked number 11, and ready to have a statement win, and a Big 12 controlling win, against the Jayhawks.

Texas is coming in at the right time for them though, coming off what was probably their best win and game of the season. They were able to win a rivalry game against #10 Texas A&M on Wednesday, blowing them out 81-60. They were able to end the Aggies 13 game winning streak behind the double digit scoring effort of three starters, led by Jordan Hamilton who dropped 27 points hitting on 10 of 14 shot attempts.

Kansas has yet to lose a game this year, and despite their close calls, many believe them to be the most talented and well rounded team in the nation. The fact that they are playing at home is not small thing either, as they have now won 68 straight at home. Which is currently the longest streak in the nation as well.
When you look at the match ups that Kansas can present on the scoring big men that Texas can throw out there that is where it would appear that Kansas will win, on the defensive end. With the ability to put a Morris twin on Hamilton, they will be able to guard him both inside and out, or if they even wanted to put a Josh Selby on him, and athletic guard that can stick with him all over the court.

Then they will have the advantage out on the perimeter with guard play, and their guards will be able to get into the lane and make plays. Whether they drive looking to finish themselves, drop it off to the big guys, or kick it out for an open look, they should have success.

I think that with the home court advantage that Kansas possesses at The Phog, and their ability to defend the primary scorers for Texas I think gives Kansas the edge. Then on the offensive side of the ball their guard play will help them to score in the familiar confines of home. Prediction: Kansas 82 Texas 71.

When this weekend is all said and done, I think you will be seeing Kansas in the top spot, and Ohio St. falling to number four. That's because with their win over Syracuse on Monday Pittsburgh will find themselves at number two, followed by Syracuse bouncing back with a big top 10 win at home against Villanova.

Thursday, January 20, 2011

Blake Griffin for MVP? Why Not?

So this year you are hearing the usual names thrown out there for the MVP, LeBron James, Dirk Nowitzki, Kobe Bryant, Dwight Howard, among others. What has a lot of the buzz of this first half the season been about though? Blake Griffin. He has taken the league by storm, and his highlight reel has everyone from fans to the players themselves just in awe.

When you hear the talk about Griffin though it has to do with Rookie of the Year, which many believe that he has just run away with at this point, and no talk of MVP. I ask you though, if the Clippers get back to .500, sniffing or even into the playoffs (currently seven games back of the eight spot), how do you not give him the MVP?

Last night Griffin had 20 points and 18 rebounds, missed another 20-20 game by two rebounds. That is his 11th game this season that he has scored 20 or more points while grabbing 15 or more rebounds. Unbelievable. He just had his 27 game double-double streak ended, yes that is 27 in the forward loaded Western Conference. He is averaging 22.6 points per game, to go along with 12.8 rebounds per game.

When you look at the highlights, when you take in the fact that he had that streak of double-doubles, and one game later already with another 20 points 18 rebound game, his averaging a double-double, has the most points scored in a single game this year at 47, and there is no end in sight, he has the numbers. Now if he can get the Clippers to win games, like they have in the past month, then I would have no problem putting together a Blake Griffin for MVP campaign.

Wednesday, January 19, 2011

How Does Duke Become A Top One Loss Team?

With full disclosure I am a Duke hater, and I have many reasons for it, that is a completely different blog post to be made at a later time. This post is not about my disdain for the Blue Devils, but rather for their position these days, days that are not really pertinent to where teams will be come late February. At this point it is just the audacity of their positioning, the idea of their stature being put in places that just do not seem right that has gotten me to write this post.

There is no denying the fact that Duke was worthy and deserving of their preseason number one ranking. Then there is no denying that they should remain in the top 10 with their loss, it was a tough game on the road. Top eight though? Top 6? Top 4? I do not know if those points are as clear cut as people want to make them.

There are two teams that have a gripe to keep Duke out of the top five, Syracuse and San Diego State, assuming that everyone agrees the top three, in some order, are Ohio State, Kansas and Pittsburgh. One of them with one loss similar to Duke, and the other without a loss.

So there sits San Diego State, 20 wins and zero losses. They have not dropped a game yet. This is not the BCS, it is a poll, why is a team that has a record of 20-0 not right there with the other undefeated teams. I would argue that Pittsburgh should be behind them as well, though that is not as much of an issue given their recent play, and win over previously undefeated Syracuse. That is just ridiculous, and the argument of competition is not valid, because their conference has a one loss team in the top 10 as well. It just does not make sense to me.

Then there is Syracuse, a team that it is not an issue of ranking at this point, and probably will not be, given that Saturday the Orange will be playing number seven Villanova, and that game will probably result in Syracuse being either ahead of, or behind Duke. If with a win Syracuse falls behind Duke in the polls then that is just absurd and almost that much more of an issue.

No, the issue with Syracuse, and again this is an issue in which the result does not matter at this point, it is not going to be this way by season's end, but the perception of it currently. It lies in Joe Lunardi's Bracketology and Duke having a number one seed ahead of the Orange, which is mind boggling to me, and just another frustration by what I can only understand as Duke bias.

Syracuse and Duke each have one loss, Duke at Florida State and Syracuse at Pittsburgh. You tell me, not even considering the home court advantage that Pittsburgh enjoys (one of the best in the nation, especially against top five teams, where they have never lost to one there). Compare the loss of Duke to the loss of Syracuse and tell me that one is not lightyears more understandable, acceptable, and for lack of a another term better than the other one.

Then you can look at the fact that Syracuse has the number two RPI, compared to Duke who falls in at number 11. They have a strength of schedule of 30 at Syracuse, Duke's strength of schedule falls in their at number 80. Duke has a non-conference strength of schedule of 179, but oh Syracuse has one that is 129. Finally in Joe Lunardi's own preferred RPI formula Syracuse comes in at number two ( that team they lost to, Pittsburgh, they were number one), and Duke is there at four.

Now I know both teams will probably lose again, they will go up and down in the rankings together, and fall out of those bracketology seeds they have now. But at this point in time, this frame of time, it is just extremely annoying, frustrating and typical for everything that happens with Duke. When does Syracuse get their respect? Their resume and year has been better than Duke's, period. And then there is that team who has not lost yet, yeah they have a gripe too.

Maybe The Heat Don't Have It All Figured Out

How many people watched the Miami Heat go 21-1 in that 22 game stretch and said, 'Here we go, told you they were going to be unbeatable. They will almost never lose the rest of the year. NBA champs!' Yeah, I am sure every basketball fan knows at least one person who said that. Well that might not be the case, believe it or not you can't hand them the trophy just yet.

Last night the Heat lost to the Atlanta Hawks in overtime, at home no less, and it was their fourth straight loss. Yeah, four straight. That means 21-5 in their last 26, and gives them a 30-13 record overall (that means the Chicago Bulls 72 wins record is safe from the Heat this year). Last night's game, along with the previous three losses, have brought up some kinks in that armor as well.

This team without the big three playing together is suspect. The last three losses came with LeBron James missing the first two, and Chris Bosh missing last night's game. So while not having all of your players that this team is really pieced together around, more so than maybe any other team in the NBA, then you will struggle a little. Not being able to get a win without one of them though is tough to accept.

What was learned from last night's game, Chris Bosh is more valuable to this team than was originally believed. In last night's game the Heat as a team attempted 30 three pointers, the most in a game this season. Not only did the team take more threes, but James himself took 10, and he took 30 shots altogether by himself. Wade then took 20 shots as well, that is 50 shots between the two, out of the teams 77 shots. Not quite the balance you would want, perhaps a reason that they lost.

Another reason they lost, and a trend that is starting to be seen, is the lack of being able to close out games by the Heat. In games decided by five points or less they find themselves at 1-7. Not only below .500, but only winning one of those eight games. That is a problem, a glaring one for a team that is not going to just blow everyone away, especially come playoff time.

A part of that inability to close is their late game decision making. Just using last night's game as a starting point, they had shots in regulation and overtime in the closing seconds. What did they get? LeBron taking 28 foot three pointers that were at the very least mildly contested. Those are not winning shots, those are not shots that you want to rely on in close games. The Boston Celtics, they give it to Paul Pierce at the top of the key. The Chicago Bulls, they give it to Derrick Rose and let him create. The Heat almost looked like they did not know who was going to shot, where, or when, and just sort of panicked into two deep heaves.

This team is struggling right now so it is easy to pick on them. They are injured and losing so some of their deficiencies are more apparent, just ask the Dallas Mavericks. These issues will not go away with healing injuries though, they have to learn to win more than one out of eight close games, and who is going to create for that last shot when it comes time.

Tuesday, January 18, 2011

How Do You Rank the Big East Now?

Big Monday last night was a benchmark night for the Big East. You had four teams in the top 10 going at it, and probably the four best teams in the Big East, no matter the rankings and records, playing against one another. So after watching that action, how do you rank them?

The number one team has to be the Pittsburgh Panthers after last night's showing, and a lot of people may have thought that going in. They were able to flex their muscles early against Syracuse getting out to that 19-0 lead, and then were able to take control late as well. They took the number three team in the country and did not trail in the game, and ended up winning going away, 74-66.

That brings the Panthers record to 18-1, 6-0 in the Big East, and surely into a top three ranking given they do not lose to bottom dweller DePaul on Saturday. A very well balanced team, they have seven players averaging over six points per game, and three in double figures, led by Ashton Gibbs with 16. They lead the nation in rebounding, and can go 10 players deep and feel confident. They have a great coach in Jamie Dixon, who has a career record of 206-55, and are 6-0 in the Big East. Right now they are definitely leading the pack.

Following close behind though, and reinforced by last night's match up without their leading scorer in Kris Joseph, would have to be Syracuse. With a loss of only eight points to a top three team on their home court where they almost never lose, without Joseph, and getting out to a 19 point deficit, I think the Orange proved something. They can play with the best even though they might not be playing their best.

They have two experienced guards leading their vaunted 2-3 zone out top, and a double-double machine down low in Rick Jackson. Jackson has to be in the conversation, though a short one with the way Kemba Walker is playing, for Big East Player of the Year. Speaking of the 2-3 zone, going into last night's game the Orange were hold teams to an average of under 60 points a game, and shooting only 37% from the field. They have been winning games because of their defense, which is where championships are said to be won.

Last night also showed that despite things not going their way they can play with anyone. Also taken from that game was the growth, and potential of freshman Dion Waiters and CJ Fair, along with sophomore James Southerland. After losing Wes Johnson and Andy Rautins the question was where would those minutes, points, rebounds and defense come from, these three have stepped right in. Syracuse is number two behind Pittsburgh, but they are not going to stop fighting for that top spot.

The next team has to be Connecticut. Coming into the year without high expectations Kemba Walker took this team on his back early to lead them into the top 10, and now as the season goes along the other players are starting to step up and help him, making them that much more dangerous.

Kemba Walker right now is hands down the National Player of the Year in my opinion, he has been unstoppable. He is second in the nation in scoring, and has three game winning shots after yesterday's with 2.5 seconds left against Villanova. He has done anything and everything for this team, and he puts them in the top four all by himself.

The reason they are third today is because his supporting cast is starting to grow and really play to a high level. Alex Oriakhi has been his number two all year, really coming out strong in the Maui Invitational and being that rock down low, with games like at Texas when he had 21 big rebounds in the come from behind win. Shabazz Napier and Jeremy Lamb are two freshman that are starting to play more like sophomores or juniors,and the Huskies are now becoming a team. They are going to be that much more dangerous come March, I do not think you are going to want to see Kemba and crew in your bracket.

Finally, Villanova comes in at number four. The Wildcats lost a tough one, in a tough environment yesterday, and that drops them below the Huskies. They weren't able to hold onto the lead they had built on the road, and Kemba came back to bite them in the end. That was only the second loss of the season, and first in the Big East for Villanova. But more so than the record, it is the way they have played in games this year, the wins they have struggled to get, that puts them at the bottom of this top tier in the Big East.

They have all the necessities to make it to Houston though, because they have great guard play and their front line has depth. Cory Fisher is one of the best guards in the Big East, and he can shoot and score with anyone in the country, just yesterday he had 28 points in that loss to Kemba and UCONN. Villanova fans are excited though because his running mate Maalik Wayns is playing great basketball as a starting sophomore, and Corey Stokes is one of the best shooters in the Big East, and absolutely deadly from behind the arc.

The big guys are what will make Villanova dangerous to a lot of teams tough. While you are concerning yourself with those three out top, Mouphtaou Yarou and Antonio Pena are able to get big rebounds and have both really improved their offensive games from last year. Yarou has become reliable on that low block, and Pena gives them the ability to step out with a bigger guy on him and shoot the face up 15 foot jumper. The balance they get from their bigs is vital to their success.

The Big East is loaded this year, with possibly as many as 11 of the teams having a chance to go to the Big Dance. These four teams have seemed to separate themselves from the Georgetown's, Louisville's and Notre Dame's at this point. By years end all of these schools have the talent to remain in the top 10, and each gain the respect and aura of this year's best team in the Big East. Only time will tell.

Monday, January 17, 2011

A Great Day of Basketball, to Honor a Great Man

In honor of Martin Luther King Jr., on this the 25th anniversary of the inaugural Martin Luther King Jr. Day, ESPN has a day of basketball games that rivals any other lineup. With the headliner being #4 Syracuse at #5 Pittsburgh (as per last weeks rankings) the lineup is not limited to that.

Chicago Bulls at Memphis Grizzlies 1 p.m.

The Bulls travel to Memphis to take on the reeling Grizzles to lead the day off with a game from the professionals. The Bulls have won 17 out of their last 22 games and have risen to third in the East standings, and making a push towards that top spot, coming off a win against the number one Miami Heat on Saturday.

Derrick Rose is an early MVP candidate and since Carlos Boozer has come off of injury their whole team has begun to have a better chemistry. Today however Boozer is unlikely to play, after injuring his left ankle during the Heat game, and he was seen in a boot. Despite the loss of Boozer the Bulls learned how to play without him early in the year and should be able to take this one of the road.

Villanova Wildcats at Connecticut Huskies 3:30 p.m.

In a top 10 matchup between two other Big East powerhouses Villanova heads into Connecticut off a big come from behind win against the Terrapins from Maryland and the ACC. They were down 12 with about nine minutes left on Saturday before a 19-0 run gave them the lead and control of the game en route to a big victory at home.

UCONN on the other hand handled bottom-dweller DePaul easily, but more importantly got Kemba Walker back on track with a 31 point outing despite only playing just a little over 30 minutes. This game should be a close one throughout though, with both teams having big men with tough names to pronounce in Mouphtaou Yarou of 'Nova and Alex Oriakhi of UCONN. Then the strenght of both teams comes in their guards with Walker (favorite for player of the year at this point) and very talented Shabbazz Napier.

This one should be very entertaining and fast paced as both teams like to run with their guards, and athletic bigs. Don't be surprised if this one is played in the high 70's-80's.

Kansas St Wildcats at Missouri Tigers 5:30 p.m.

In a pivotal Big 12 match up these two teams come in struggling, and not where either expected to be. Both ranked high in the preseason Kansas St. is on the brink of falling out of the top 25, as Missouri lost a big game this weekend in overtime. This is a game where both teams have really talented players on the offensive end, and the styles of play match each other well.

Jacob Pullen leads the Wildcats, a preseason player of the year candidate he will have to control the game for them to win, and get more consistent on his outside shot. He will be seeing a lot of pressure from the Tigers press that tries to speed the other team up into an uncomfortable flow. They should have some success with the ball handlers besides Pullen. Curtis Kelly is back in action and he will have to go up against a big front line that will be focused on speeding Kelly and the other big men up as well, and make him work for his buckets, and try to get him into foul trouble.

Expect another shootout, and a game that the winner will need if they are going to try and challenge top dog Kansas in the Big 12.

Syracuse Orange at Pittsburgh Panthers 7:30 p.m.

Look to the Lead post on the blog for a complete preview of this game: http://www.4sportscorners.blogspot.com/

Kansas Jayhawks at Baylor Bears 9:30 p.m.

Kansas is coming in with a couple of close calls but still undefeated, while Baylor will be looking for a signature win to make their way back into the top 25. The Jayhawks almost lost their NCAA leading home winning streak to Nebraska over the weekend, before gutting it out at the end, and now they enter Baylor's tough home environment to try and slow down a very offensive minded bunch.

Freshman Josh Selby will be called on to really handle pressure from the Bears and step up in his biggest road game yet in his first year. He will be seeing a lot of the Bears star LaceDarius Dunn, who is on his way to being the all-time Big 12 leading scorer. This guard battle is the highlight of the game, but much like Villanova at UCONN the big men will have their say too. The Morris Twins will be battling a front line in Baylor that loves to run, rebound, and block shots. The Morris twins thrive on their athleticism, but this is a game where that will be matched by the opponent. Parry Jones will see probably his toughest defensive match up though in the twins.

This is a great end to the day of great basketball with wonderful match ups. The basketball fans will be happy but looking for more by 11:30 tonight. I anticipate it myself.