The Big Question, Who Will Win?

There is one question that people are asking today, when all is said and done and the 2011 tournament is over with, who is the team that will be shown at the end of "One Shining Moment"? Who will be hoisting up the plaque and saying, with all the truth in the world, we are number one? We know it will either be Butler or Connecticut, teams that if you put $10 on before the season started you are in line to make a pretty good profit from, because no matter what success they achieved this year, national champions was not believed to be in the cards. So who is going to win, and why?

When looking at Butler you know it has to happen on the defensive end, because the athletes that Connecticut has, more so than a team like Pittsburgh from the Big East that Butler beat, are going to be able to defend the Bulldogs really well. Guys like Zach Hahn, Chase Stigall, and Andrew Smith are going to find it tough to score tonight. Then of course all the attention is going to be on Shelvin Mack and Matt Howard anyways. On that defensive end though, they can keep this game low scoring, low possession, and really make it a grind it out game that UConn would prefer to stay away from. They will have to decide if they are going to let Kemba Walker try and do his thing, and put their best defenders elsewhere like on Jeremy Lamb, or Shabazz Napier when he is in.

Now on offense they need Mack to really get started early, because when he starts off well they put themselves in a better position to win, stay out of early holes which they have usually had a tough time getting out of, despite what happened in the Florida game. They also need those roles players to continue to show up like they have been. Shawn Vanzant has really hit big shots in this tournament, and probably having a good defender on him in Jeremy Lamb is going to limit his chances, and he will need to step up and take advantage of his openings. Khyle Marshall is an X-factor because he has come on in these last few games and really given them great energy off the bench, and more importantly offensive rebounds and extra possessions. He needs to come in and get those rebounds and extra possessions again, because Butler is going to need to control the ball and tempo of this game.

Connecticut has to have the guys down low step up, that is maybe their greatest advantage tonight besides Kemba, their size and athleticism advantage over Butler in the paint. Alex Oriakhi and Roscoe Smith have to control the paint, get rebounds, block shots, and really be a presence down there. They will also need to watch their turnovers, because easy buckets are not what you want to give up to a Butler team that prefers to execute in the half court, giving them easy transition baskets would be like charity. They have been good in the tournament about turning the ball over, but Saturday against Kentucky they struggled, and this is the biggest stage where nerves could certainly get the better of people. Then the obvious would be the scoring of Kemba and Lamb, they need both of them to really come through and dominate the way that they have all season and tournament long. They will need guys like Smith, Napier, Oriakhi and Jamal Coombs-Mcdaniel to step up and hit shots, maybe have a couple of them get double figures, but it will be on Kemba, as it has all year, to run this team and dominate this game.

When all is said and done the Huskies are too athletic on the defensive end, something that gave a lot of teams trouble in this tournament, their opponents averaging only 59 points against them, and they will be able to keep the Bulldogs in check, though Mack can shoot from anywhere and steps up in big games so he will cause problems. Kemba may get off to a slow start, and it will be close for most of the first half, but he and Lamb will get it going in the second and Connecticut will win, though Butler will keep it close as always with their fight, and determination. In the end though Connecticut will remain undefeated in the 2010-11 season against opponents outside of the Big East, and they will win their third championship this season, and third National Championship under Jim Calhoun.

Connecticut 67 Butler 56

Butler On A Mission Part II

Last year when the Butler Bulldogs made it to the Final Four, and then the National Championship game, it was this feel good story of a little school going to play down the road from home in the Hoosier state. They were Cinderella, but were also a five seed, with an NBA lottery talent, and had an up and coming coach even before that run. They were not supposed to be there, but you could see why an upset or two got them there.

This year they come into the tournament a team that lost that NBA player, at one point were 14-9, an eight seed with a very losable first round match up, and once again not on people's radar. Well here they are now back in Monday night's National Championship game, and 40 minutes away from getting what eluded them by a half an inch on a half court heave. They beat the regular season champions from the Big East, the SEC, and took down a Big 10 foe to get there, and then last night they took out the team of destiny in VCU.

Both halves of last night's game really started out the same way, VCU coming out hyped and energetic and really taking control of the early going. Each half then followed the same suit of Shelvin Mack taking over for a period of time, and in each half Butler regained control and took the lead. Eventually both halves ended the same way too, with Butler ahead on the scoreboard.

These games are won by the players of course, but Brad Stevens continues to make brilliant moves here and there. Able to sit his two stars for extended periods of time in both halves, and put the lineups together that can keep their gameplan working and on pace for the victories.

Mack was able to take over the game when it was necessary, hit a dagger shot here, dagger shot there from outside to keep the Bulldogs in control, or to help them take control back. Just look at the stats, he went 5-6 from behind the arc, and all of those were huge shots. Matt Howard was able to his strong play despite not making a three, pulling down eight rebounds to go along with 17 points.

Much like the Kentucky and Connecticut game though, it was about the other guys that really got this win for Butler, and is that not what Butler always is though, a team. Shawn Vanzant was able to hit big shot after big shot, a corner three when they needed it, a pull up 15 footer with both Howard and Mack on the bench. Just big shots. Then little Zach Hahn who had not really scored thus far in the tournament, he decides to go on a streak of scoring eight in a row before Mack would step up and do the same thing. Khyle Marshall came in and got nine rebounds, five of which were offensive and gave them extra possessions in a slowed down tempo.

That is what VCU was missing, because though Mack played incredible he was still not the best player on the court. Jamie Skeen of VCU played an MVP-caliber game last night, scoring 27 points on 10-17 shooting, while ripping down six boards, dishing out three assists, and making three of his four three point attempts. Unfortunately for the former Mr. Basketball in North Carolina the rest of the team only was up to score 35 points between them.

No, it was Butler again playing the team game, with a couple players of upper echelon talent taking over when necessary, and winning a national semifinal to play its way into a national championship game. They lost to Duke last year, maybe they can pull a Duke, a-la the loss to UNLV in 1990, only to come back the next year and win it all. It could happen.

VCU Meets Butler, One Will Play For The Title

You have probably heard it a thousand times by now, "What would you say if I told you that either Butler or VCU would be playing in the national championship game at the beginning of the tournament? You would call me nuts!" Well it has happened, and we have to deal with it. The great thing is, come tonight around 10 after six o'clock, we will probably have a great game of two teams on great tournament runs. Butler has had close games in all four of their match ups, and VCU has had probably the greatest NCAA Tournament run of all time, beating teams from the Pac 10, Big East, Big 10, ACC, and Big 12. Absolutely amazing. So who will win the meeting of the under dogs?

VCU has shot the ball incredibly well from behind the arc in this tournament, they really beat Kansas because of the number of first half three pointers they made. They need to maintain that hot shooting because Butler's defense is so stout, so physical, that they need to hit the open shots when they get them, like they have been all tournament long. They have to use their athleticism over the Butler players in certain match ups, especially since many times in the tournament they have not had that advantage at many positions. Joey Rodriguez has to control this game and its tempo, because he is the biggest reason on the court as to why they have made it this far. He has controlled the pace of their games, found the open man, made the open shots, and just made the correct play almost every time he was put in position to make a play. They need him to continue to play that way, because they know that Shelvin Mack is going to everything in his power to get back to that championship Monday.

Butler has to do one thing to win, play Butler tournament basketball, because that seems to work very well lately, a half an inch away from a 10 game tournament win streak. The key to Butler has been their defense, and if they are able to play that defense on VCU, and get the team concept to really get into the space and faces of the shooters, then VCU should find it difficult to keep up their hot shooting. The Bulldogs also have to make sure they hit the defensive glass, the last thing you want to give VCU is second chances, third chances and so on. The fewer possessions you give them the better, so they need to control the boards. Lastly, get Mack going early. He is a player that can take a game over, and if he is able to get started early, and he is a guy that thrives on the spotlight, then it could be a long day for the Rams, because he has that killer instinct, and he has it often.

I think that VCU comes out of the gates and really jumps out in front. They are hyped, energetic and really bring it to the Bulldogs on the offensive end. I think Mack and Matt Howard settle the guys down and they chip away at the lead, and their team defense figures out their slides and plays more cohesively as the game continues on. I see Butler coming out with the win, in another pretty close game.

Butler 67 VCU 61